Friday, October 19, 2007

To Burst or Not to Burst, That is the Question!

Before you get to the NY Times article I think it is important to read Carlota’s interview with Booze Allen Hamilton’s Strategy + Business because it gives more to her background and long wave theory.

I read this interview years ago, and after reading it my perception of what I had just gone through with the Internet bubble burst wasn’t so bad after all. Actually, after reading her interview, I wanted more explanation so I read her book, Technological Revelutions and Financial Capital: The The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages to which she goes into much more detail about how technological revolutions are a necessary evil and what benefits are left in their wakes.

Since reading the interview and book, I’ve become a follower of her theory because I lived through the “frenzy” and I am now living in the post-Internet bubble burst era. Over the years, I’ve asked my friends if they thought the bubble burst was a good thing and of course they all say “HELL NO”. Most of them were burned hard and that is a tough question for them to say, “yes” to.

Take the time to read her interview and after you’re done, you’ll see that the bubble burst was necessary and beneficial to us “new” entrepreneurs. What benefits were in the burst, you say? Look at what happened in the 90’s and early 2000s. There was so much over-investment in infrastructure & technology that post burst, we were left with all this extra capacity. I like to think that Google buying dark fiber, of which was left from the burst, has some level of correlation to her theory. That’s me thinking way out loud. We also see how this build up changed the consumer Internet experience & expectation. Who here is raving about their 56K dial-up speed?

If you wrap up the over-investment in technology, infrastructure and the change in consumer expectations, it becomes easy to see why the next generation of entrepreneurs are founding such "new" richer web experiences.


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